The transition from the searing hot Spring selling season has officially turned to the second hottest selling season - Summer! Since the end of February, the active listing inventory is up 29% and demand has decreased 10% in the last two weeks alone! I is still a seller's market, as the average time to get a home sold today is 59 days, but has shifted from a HOT seller's market to a SLIGHT seller's market. Take a look at the inventory trend year over year in this chart:
Demand is off from the peak toward the beginning of May and will continue to decline from now through the Holidays, as the annual cycle shows below. Of course, there will be some brief increases in demand along the way - the key is for sellers to be careful about overpricing their home in the light of increasing inventory and decreasing demand.
- The active listing inventory increased by 134 homes, or 2%, in the past couple of weeks, and now totals 5,757. Last year, there were 6,603 homes on the market, 846 more than today.
- There are 35% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 22%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, dropped by 10 pending sales in the past couple of weeks and now totals 2,904. The average pending price is $842,204.
- The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.6 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 38 days. This range represents 38% of the active inventory and 60% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 54 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 21% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is at 71 days, a seller’s market.
- For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 90 to 108 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 162 to 144 days. For luxury homes priced above $2 million, the expected market time increased from 235 to 256 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 12% of demand.
- The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased from 58 days to 59 in the past couple of weeks, a solid seller’s market (less than 60 days), but about to transition into a normal seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise throughout the Summer Market, moving from a seller’s market to a slight seller’s market.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.3% of all listings and 1.9% of demand. There are only 32 foreclosures and 44 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 76 total distressed homes on the active market, 8 more than two weeks ago. Last year there were 148 total distressed sales, 95% more than today.
- There were 3,143 closed sales in May, an 18% increase over April 2017 and a 4% increase over May 2016. The sales to list price ratio was 97.8% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 1.1% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 1.7%. That means that nearly 97.2% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned equity sellers.
I'm Leslie Eskildsen, Realtor.
Email me. Leslie@MyMVHome.com
Helping you make the right move in Mission Viejo, Coto de Caza, Rancho Santa Margarita, Irvine, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Hills, San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente, Laguna Beach, Newport Beach, Dana Point, Corona Del Mar, and other Orange County communities.